Definite Optimism

How to shape the world for the better

“Good.”

This is something that one of my direct subordinates, one of the guys who worked for me, a guy who became one of my best friends pointed out.

He would pull me aside with some major problem or issue that was going on, and he’d say, “Boss, we’ve got this thing, this situation, and it’s going terribly wrong.”

I would look at him and say, “Good.”

And finally, one day, he was telling me about something that was going off the rails, and as soon as he finished explaining it to me, he said, “I already know what you’re going to say.”

And I asked, “What am I going to say?”

And he said, “You’re going to say: ‘Good.’ ”

He continued, “That’s what you always say. When Something is wrong or going bad, you just look at me and say, ‘Good.’ ”

And I said, “Well. I mean it. Because that is how I operate.”

So I explained to him that when things are going bad, there’s going to be some good that will come from it.

Oh, the mission got canceled? Good… We can focus on another one.
Didn’t get the new high-speed gear we wanted? Good… We can keep it simple.
Didn’t get promoted? Good… More time to get better.
Didn’t get funded? Good… We own more of the company.
Didn’t get the job you wanted? Good… Go out, gain more experience, and build a better resume.
Got injured? Good… Needed a break from training.
Got tapped out? Good… It’s better to tap out in training than tap out on the street.
Got beat? Good… We learned.
Unexpected problems? Good… We have to figure out a solutions

That’s it. When things are going bad: Don’t get all bummed out, don’t get started, don’t get frustrated. No. Just look at the issue and say: “Good.”

Now, I don’t mean to say something trite; I’m not trying to sound like Mr. Smiley Positive Guy.

That guy ignores the hard truth.

That guy thinks a positive attitude will solve problems.

It won’t. But neither will dwelling on the problem. No. Accept reality, but focus on the solution. Take that issue, take that setback, take that problem, and turn it into something good. Go forward. And, if you are part of a team, that attitude will spread throughout.

Finally: if you can say the word “good,” then guess what?

It means you’re still alive.

It means you’re still breathing.

And if you’re still breathing, that means you’ve still got some fight left in you.

So get up, dust off, reload, recalibrate, re-engage – and go out on the attack.”

—Jocko Willink, former commander of SEAL Team 3's Task Unit Bruiser

Definite Optimism

“Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect.”

—Ralph Waldo Emerson. 

When I say I am optimistic, what I mean is that I believe in three values.

1. Reason

2. Purpose

3. Self Esteem

Reason, as the primary way we map our reality to make connections and build a future we want for ourselves.

Purpose, as the primary way to achieve happiness by pursuing rational goals through productive work and overcoming obstacles.

Self esteem, the confidence in one's ability to think and achieve these goals, and the right to pursue one's own happiness as a moral imperative.

By utilizing these three key elements, we can create a deterministically optimistic future.

In other words, we can build the future we want to live in.

This idea is not new.

God helps those who help themselves.

— Ben Franklin, Poor Richard’s Almanac in 1757

You can expect the future to take a definite form or you can treat it as hazily uncertain. If you treat the future as something definite, it makes sense to understand it in advance and to work to shape it. But if you expect an indefinite future ruled by randomness, you’ll give up on trying to master it…

— Peter Thiel, Zero to One, 2007

Manifestation—or the laws of attraction—may be a concept you're familiar with. Keep in mind: It doesn't happen overnight. Although manifesting is about turning your dreams into reality, it does require you to take proactive steps toward whatever it is you desire. Having a vision creates a path for the future. It focuses you and allows for clarity moving forward.

-Oprah, 2022

Three very different people with the same message for different audiences.

When I say I am an optimist, it doesn’t mean I expect everything to go to plan. It means I work every day to understand the world around me and how it works.

Then once I have a mental model of how it works, I map out how I can operate within the complex system to try to actualize my goals.

And since the world is a complex system, it is ever changing. Every agent within the system is also working within it, trying to actualize their goals.

So when the rules of the game change, you have to recalibrate, fine tune your mental models to the new reality, and spin the new set of circumstances into a favorable outcome.

This is by no means easy. But my number one piece of advice for doing so would be to take your ego out of the equation.

Ego is the enemy, and the obstacle is the way.

Indefinite Optimism

To an indefinite optimist, the future will be better, but he doesn’t know how exactly, so he won’t make any specific plans. He expects to profit from the future, but sees no reason to design it concretely.

—Peter Thiel, Zero to One

Instead of working for years to build a new product, indefinite optimists rearrange already-invented ones.

Bankers make money by rearranging the capital structures of already existing companies.

Lawyers resolve disputes over old things, or help other people structure their affairs.

And private equity investors and management consultants don’t start new businesses; they squeeze extra efficiency from old ones with incessant procedural optimizations.

In the 20th century, the legal profession saw an astonishing 793% increase in the number of lawyers, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 8% from 1900 to 2000.

• In 1980, there were approximately 574,000 lawyers in the United States.

• By 2000, the number of lawyers had surpassed 1 million.

• As of January 1, 2023, there were 1,331,290 active lawyers in the country.

Why?

Because becoming a lawyer is the ultimate career path of the indefinite optimist.

Definite optimism works because you build the future you envision.

Indefinite pessimism works because it’s self-fulfilling: if you expect the future to be better, but don’t have any concrete justifications for it being so, you’ll stumble through life by creating a skill set, and surviving through number of happy accidents.

But indefinite optimism seems inherently unsustainable: how can the future get better if no one plans for it?

Conclusion

I’ve spoken before about why we can’t “just stop oil”.

I’ve spoken before about why promotion and a culture based on merit is the only system that works.

So what do I mean when I’m a techo-optimist?

What do I mean when I say I am optimistic about the future?

I mean that you are here. That life exists, and identity. That the powerful play goes on and you may contribute a verse.

What will your verse be?