The Compressed 21st Century

How AI Could Revolutionize Humanity's Future

I believe that in the AI age, we should be talking about the marginal returns to intelligence.

—Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic

For most of our history as a species, progress has been a flat, iterative process.

But what do you notice about this chart:

Source. (Everything underlined in this article is a link).

The 20th century was an explosion of technological advancement, such that in the year 1900, a horse and buggy was the primary means of transportation.

Today, you can call a driver to come pick you up from the super computer you carry around with you in your pocket.

What enabled this shift?

As we invented technologies of scale, like the stream engine and the internal combustion engine, we allowed the progression of technology to accelerate.

Artificial Intelligence technology is the steam engine of the 21st century, but for knowledge work.

And just like with the steam engine, what we could have achieved in a century, can be accelerated and compressed into just 5-10 years.

Accelerate

This acceleration hinges on AI systems acting as virtual scientists, designing and conducting experiments, inventing new techniques, and rapidly iterating on discoveries.

AI could amplify the rate of key scientific discoveries by simulating and analyzing complex biological processes and identifying research avenues that might elude human colleagues.

To be clear, when I say “AI”, I am not just referring to LLMs.

LLMs are just one small subset of the burgeoning field of Artificial Intelligence, and may be an extremely inelegant architecture for future use cases which will demand a more streamlined approach.

When the printing press was invented in 1440 CE, we didn’t just say “This is great. We will print everything using this architecture, and never improve it, because the scaling laws will hold.”

Over the course of several years, hundreds of people iterated on the printing press in a number of ways to make it more efficient.

Metal components: Lord Stanhope built the first press made entirely of cast iron, reducing the force required by 90% and doubling the printed area.

Steam power: Friedrich Koenig and Andreas Bauer developed the steam-powered cylinder press, increasing printing speeds significantly.

Rotary press: Richard M. Hoe invented the steam-powered rotary printing press in the United States, enabling millions of copies to be printed in a single day.

Continuous feed: The transition to rolled paper allowed presses to run at a much faster pace.

Stereotypes: Thin metal plates cast from molds of composed type were introduced, eliminating the need for type in the actual printing process4.

Web printing: William Bullock designed a continuous roll of paper to run through rotary presses, further increasing efficiency.

So throughout this article, when I refer to “AI”, I’m referring to both LLMs, as well as other architectures that exist today and are being leveraged in different industries for different use cases.

Leveraging these technologies could lead to a tenfold increase in critical breakthroughs like CRISPR gene-editing technology, advanced microscopy, and mRNA vaccines that are safe and effective.

Leverage

Now for the how.

Eradication of Infectious Diseases

Artificial intelligence-driven research could revolutionize the way we combat infectious diseases.

By rapidly analyzing complex biological data, AI could identify potential vulnerabilities in pathogens, accelerating the creation of effective medical interventions.

This could result in a world where infectious diseases are no longer a significant threat to public health.

Cancer Elimination

Early detection and personalized treatments facilitated by AI could make most cancers curable.

Machine learning algorithms can analyze medical images and genetic information to identify cancerous cells at their inception, allowing for prompt and targeted therapy.

Personalized medicine, powered by AI, would tailor treatments to an individual's unique genetic makeup, increasing the efficacy of interventions and reducing side effects.

Genetic Disease Prevention

AI has the potential to aid in both preventing and curing genetic disorders. By decoding vast amounts of genetic data, AI systems can identify harmful mutations and predict their impact on health.

This knowledge enables the development of gene-editing technologies and therapies that can correct genetic abnormalities before they manifest as diseases, offering hope for conditions previously considered un-treatable.

Alzheimer's Disease Prevention

An advanced understanding of neurological processes, achieved through AI, might lead to effective prevention strategies for Alzheimer's disease.

AI can model the complex interactions within the brain, identifying early signs of neurodegeneration.

This could pave the way for interventions that halt or slow down the progression of Alzheimer's, preserving cognitive function and quality of life for millions.

Improved Chronic Ailment Treatments

Conditions like diabetes and heart disease could become manageable or even curable with the help of AI.

By continuously monitoring patient data and lifestyle factors, AI can provide personalized treatment plans and predictive analytics to prevent complications.

This proactive approach would enable healthcare providers to address the root causes of chronic ailments rather than just managing symptoms.

Increased Biological Freedom

Greater control over weight, appearance, and reproductive choices could become possible through advancements in AI.

By understanding the biological and genetic factors that influence these aspects, AI can offer customized solutions and recommendations.

This increased biological freedom empowers individuals to make informed decisions about their bodies and health.

Doubling Human Lifespan

Life extension technologies might become a reality, potentially doubling the human lifespan.

AI can analyze the mechanisms of aging at a molecular level, identifying interventions that promote longevity and reduce age-related decline.

Through personalized medicine and lifestyle recommendations, AI could help individuals lead longer, healthier lives.

Neuroscience and Mind

Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly accelerate neuroscience research by automating and enhancing laboratory processes in traditional molecular biology, chemistry, and genetics.

AI can develop precise tools for studying and influencing neural activity, known as fine-grained neural measurement and intervention.

By leveraging insights from advanced computational neuroscience, AI helps scientists understand brain function at a deeper level.

Additionally, AI can provide improved behavioral interventions and personalized mental health support through AI coaching, enhancing cognitive abilities, and emotional well-being.

Potential Advancements

AI could lead to effective treatments for a range of mental illnesses, including PTSD, depression, schizophrenia, and addiction.

By analyzing patterns in brain activity and behavior, AI systems can identify underlying causes and suggest targeted therapies.

Interventions for structural conditions such as psychopathy and intellectual disabilities might also become feasible, offering new hope for individuals affected by these challenges.

Genetic prevention methods, such as screening embryos, could help prevent mental illnesses before they develop.

For everyday psychological issues, AI could provide tools for managing stress, anxiety, and other common problems, improving overall mental health.

Furthermore, enhancing cognitive functions like memory and attention could become possible, allowing individuals to achieve higher levels of mental performance and productivity.

Scale

But it's not just biological advancements which could accelerate. We’re also talking about economic development and the globalized distribution of benefits to all people.

Ensuring equitable access to AI-driven advancements is a moral imperative and as such, AI's transformative potential must extend beyond developed nations to have a truly global impact.

Efficient Health Intervention Distribution

Artificial intelligence-powered epidemiological modeling and logistics can significantly improve the distribution of health interventions, making life-saving treatments widely accessible.

By analyzing vast amounts of health data, AI can predict disease outbreaks, optimize supply chains, and ensure that medical resources reach the areas where they are most needed.

This enhanced efficiency can save countless lives, especially in regions with limited healthcare infrastructure.

Unprecedented Economic Growth

Optimized economic planning and AI-enabled technologies have the potential to sustain high growth rates in developing countries.

By utilizing AI to analyze economic trends, allocate resources efficiently, and identify opportunities for development, nations can accelerate their economic progress.

AI can also support businesses by improving productivity, fostering innovation, and creating new markets, leading to unprecedented economic growth.

Food Security

AI-driven agricultural improvements and optimized food distribution systems could play a crucial role in alleviating hunger and malnutrition.

By applying machine learning to agricultural data, AI can enhance crop yields through precision farming, predict weather patterns, and manage pests more effectively.

Additionally, AI can optimize food supply chains to reduce waste and ensure that food reaches those in need, contributing significantly to global food security.

Climate Change Mitigation

Innovations in clean energy and sustainable practices, powered by AI, could disproportionately benefit regions most affected by climate change.

AI can accelerate the development of renewable energy technologies, optimize energy consumption, and model the impacts of climate interventions.

By facilitating sustainable practices, AI helps mitigate the effects of climate change, offering substantial benefits to vulnerable communities and contributing to global environmental efforts.

Future

The potential of AI to revolutionize our world is both immense and imminent.

By responsibly developing and deploying powerful AI, humanity stands on the cusp of unprecedented advancements across health, neuroscience, economics, governance, and personal fulfillment.

Achieving this vision is not guaranteed. It requires concerted efforts from developers, policymakers, and individuals to mitigate risks and ensure that the transformative potential of AI benefits all of humanity.

We live in the best of all possible worlds,” said Doctor Pangloss.

“Yes” agreed Candide, “but we must cultivate our own gardens.”

Candide by Voltaire, 1759